Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
PHI5
OTT4
PHI beat OTT 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.58 expected goals to 3.49. OTT outshot PHI 37 to 19. T. Sanheim led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). I. Fedotov stopped 33 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| OTT | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 2:31PHIT. Sanheim0.11 xG
- 1st 6:02OTTB. Tkachuk0.16 xG
- 2nd 8:41OTTD. BathersonPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 18:48PHIT. Konecny0.25 xG
- 3rd 4:27OTTJ. Norris0.08 xG
- 3rd 10:05OTTA. GaudettePP0.14 xG
- 3rd 10:42PHIA. Richard0.04 xG
- 3rd 12:45PHIB. Brink0.12 xG
- OT 4:05PHIM. Michkov0.05 xG
Team Stats
PHIOTT
19Shots on goal37
1.58Expected goals3.49
38Shot attempts80
145v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play2/6
20Hits23
30Blocked shots14
12Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways6
8Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 1.58 xGOTT 3.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:48 | 1:23 |
| B. Brink | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:36 | 1:26 |
| A. Richard | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:28 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:04 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:50 | 1:12 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 1:10 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 15:17 | 1:27 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:52 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:44 | 1:11 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:06 | 1:14 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 28:22 | 0:05 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:19 | 1:13 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:43 | 1:24 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 22:36 | 0:00 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 37 | 33 | 4 | .892 | 64:05 | Win |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Norris | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:42 | 5:18 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:31 | 3:08 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:30 | 5:23 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:04 | 5:28 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:15 | 4:18 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:32 | 2:31 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 | 4:06 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:01 | 2:28 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:34 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 7:35 | 0:00 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:05 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 25:47 | 3:51 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 26:37 | 4:51 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:14 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:06 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:14 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 19 | 14 | 5 | .737 | 63:44 | OT loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.8, OTT 3.3 | PHI 5, OTT 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 27.9, OTT 29.6 | PHI 19, OTT 37 |
| Win chance | OTT 58% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.7 | 4 | 1.01 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.5 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.0 | 3 | 0.95 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.1 | 3 | 0.65 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 1 | 1.05 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.1 | 4 | 0.77 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.1 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.8 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 3 | 13% | 1 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.8 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.7 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.6 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.4 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.3 | 3 | 0.41 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI A. Richard | 1.0 | 2 | 0.40 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT Z. MacEwen | 0.9 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.