Game Recap: PHI 4, PIT 5 (OT), February 27, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI4

Final/OTThu, Feb 27, 2025Every game that night

PIT5

PIT beat PHI 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.21 expected goals to 3.37. PHI outshot PIT 37 to 25. E. Malkin led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). M. Michkov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Blomqvist stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PHI	1	3	0	0	4
PIT	0	3	1	1	5

1st 2:00PHIN. Cates0.07 xG
2nd 1:44PHIO. Tippett0.02 xG
2nd 7:24PHIM. Michkov0.31 xG
2nd 9:05PITP. Tomasino0.15 xG
2nd 9:35PITE. Karlsson0.03 xG
2nd 11:05PHIM. MichkovPP0.08 xG
2nd 18:17PITE. Karlsson0.04 xG
3rd 2:30PITE. Malkin0.11 xG
OT 1:03PITE. Malkin0.17 xG

Team Stats

PHIPIT

37Shots on goal25

3.37Expected goals2.21

61Shot attempts57

325v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/1

20Hits36

15Blocked shots10

2Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways21

10Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.37 xGPIT 2.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI36 on goal, 4 scored

PIT25 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	2	1	3	5	0	0	-1	0	13:54	2:12
O. Tippett	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	14:39	0:38
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	-1	0	21:28	2:12
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	19:23	0:38
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-1	0	18:53	0:38
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	14:39	2:12
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:14	0:39
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	18:17	2:11
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	14:31	0:00
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:49	0:00
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:38	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	5:39	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	21:38	2:20
E. Zamula	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	18:44	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	17:30	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	22:51	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	21:42	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:40	0:30

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	25	20	5	.800	61:03	OT loss
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Malkin	C	2	2	4	3	1	3	+4	0	18:44	1:14
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	0	20:50	1:34
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	17:27	0:04
P. Tomasino	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	-1	2	12:10	0:26
D. Heinen	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	11:49	1:09
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	21:22	0:48
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	20:56	0:47
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	15:53	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:49	0:46
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:32	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:00	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	4:23	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	2	1	3	4	0	0	+3	0	23:28	0:55
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	0	24:50	1:12
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	3	3	1	+3	0	22:44	0:53
R. Graves	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-2	0	13:57	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:47	0:12
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	13:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	14	11	3	.786	27:24
J. Blomqvist	23	22	1	.957	33:39	Win

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoel Acciari PHI First game back in Pittsburgh, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, PIT 3.0	PHI 4, PIT 5
Total goals	5.7	9
Shots on goal	PHI 26.9, PIT 27.4	PHI 37, PIT 25
Win chance	PIT 55%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT S. Crosby	2.9	3	1.17	1	35%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	1	0.82	0	30%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	0	0.86	0	32%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	4	0.87	3	17%	2
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	4	0.56	2	23%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	4	0.96	1	30%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.2	5	0.70	3	22%	2
PIT A. Beauvillier	2.1	1	0.41	1	18%	0
PIT K. Hayes	2.1	2	0.49	0	19%	0
PIT K. Letang	2.0	2	0.61	1	14%	0
PHI S. Laughton	2.0	2	0.55	0	18%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	2	0.55	0	25%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	4	0.48	0	14%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	1	0.47	0	10%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.7	1	0.39	0	14%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	3	0.52	1	18%	1
PHI B. Brink	1.6	1	0.53	1	17%	0
PIT E. Malkin	1.5	3	0.67	4	22%	2
PHI A. Kuzmenko	1.5	1	0.67	1	26%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.5	1	0.47	1	16%	1
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	4	0.30	1	5%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	1	0.36	0	9%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	1.4	2	0.39	0	13%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	1	0.23	1	5%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.3	0	0.29	0	13%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	0	0.32	0	6%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.2	1	0.41	1	17%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	1	0.32	0	14%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.0	2	0.31	0	12%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.0	3	0.36	1	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	1	0.19	0	11%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	0	0.18	1	5%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	0	0.34	1	7%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	0	0.16	0	7%	0
PIT V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.14	0	2%	0
PIT B. Imama	0.3	1	0.08	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.