Game Recap: PHI 2, TOR 3 (OT), January 5, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI2

Final/OTSun, Jan 5, 2025Every game that night

TOR3

TOR beat PHI 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.82 expected goals to 2.74. R. Ristolainen led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Ristolainen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Hildeby stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PHI	1	1	0	0	2
TOR	2	0	0	1	3

1st 3:24PHIT. Foerster0.02 xG
1st 4:02TORM. Knies0.77 xG
1st 18:52TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.08 xG
2nd 11:08PHIS. Laughton0.11 xG
OT 2:25TORM. Rielly0.20 xG

Team Stats

PHITOR

32Shots on goal25

2.74Expected goals2.82

67Shot attempts50

275v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play0/1

33Hits43

12Blocked shots17

9Penalty minutes13

16Giveaways17

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.74 xGTOR 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI31 on goal, 2 scored

TOR24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	17:11	2:19
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	3	4	0	0	0	16:33	1:55
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:41	0:17
S. Laughton	C	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	0	13:30	0:14
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	20:07	3:46
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	19:41	3:26
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:31	0:00
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:53	3:27
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	15:48	2:20
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:05	3:19
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	13:25	2:26
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	7	11:45	0:11
R. Ristolainen	D	0	2	2	5	5	0	0	0	23:10	2:08
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	0	22:41	0:17
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:44	0:20
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:05	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:13	3:35
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	4	2	3	0	0	15:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	25	22	3	.880	62:18	OT loss
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	0	2	2	3	3	1	+1	0	20:13	1:06
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	1	5	1	0	2	20:56	0:54
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	16:29	1:06
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	1	6	0	+1	0	13:18	0:01
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	0	10:29	0:00
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	0	22:06	1:07
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:25	1:56
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:09	0:49
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:56	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	12:50	0:04
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:06	0:52
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:44	0:00
M. Rielly	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	26:43	1:02
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	24:24	0:58
C. Tanev	D	0	1	1	2	1	5	0	0	23:14	0:05
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	7	2	+2	0	20:37	0:00
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	2	5	4	-1	0	18:24	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	7:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	32	30	2	.938	62:25	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoseph Woll PHI First game back in Toronto, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0
HometownJamie Drysdale PHI Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 3.0, TOR 3.3	PHI 2, TOR 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	PHI 29.1, TOR 27.4	PHI 32, TOR 25
Win chance	TOR 56%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.7	3	1.18	2	46%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.1	1	1.10	0	39%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.8	2	0.94	1	34%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	1	0.60	0	25%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.5	3	0.88	0	31%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.3	1	0.53	0	26%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.1	2	1.30	0	32%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.9	1	0.58	0	21%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.8	1	0.42	0	17%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	1	0.65	1	26%	1
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	1	0.41	1	14%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.7	1	0.62	0	21%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.7	2	0.44	1	22%	1
PHI S. Laughton	1.7	4	0.45	1	16%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	1	0.68	1	10%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	0	0.43	0	9%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.6	2	0.49	0	16%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	1	0.49	0	15%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.5	0	0.56	0	15%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.4	1	0.38	0	18%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.3	5	0.24	2	4%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.3	3	0.43	1	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	2	0.40	1	7%	1
TOR P. Myers	1.2	2	0.23	0	5%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	0	0.33	0	8%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	4	0.22	0	4%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	2	0.28	0	5%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.1	0	0.32	0	13%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.1	1	0.23	0	10%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	2	0.30	0	12%	0
TOR J. McCabe	0.9	0	0.38	0	7%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.9	1	0.20	1	9%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	1	0.30	0	6%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	1	0.18	1	10%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	2	0.12	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	2	0.28	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.