Game Recap: PHI 2, TOR 7, March 25, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI2

FinalTue, Mar 25, 2025Every game that night

TOR7

TOR beat PHI 7-2, with the chances close: 1.89 expected goals to 2.22. TOR outshot PHI 30 to 19. J. Tavares led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). A. Stolarz stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	1	1	0	2
TOR	2	4	1	7

1st 7:59PHIR. Poehling0.05 xG
1st 10:37TORJ. Tavares0.15 xG
1st 15:11TORW. NylanderPP0.10 xG
2nd 1:45TORB. McMann0.18 xG
2nd 7:49TORJ. Tavares0.17 xG
2nd 11:55TORW. Nylander0.09 xG
2nd 15:08TORD. Kampf0.20 xG
2nd 18:17PHIS. Couturier0.05 xG
3rd 11:32TORM. Domi0.17 xG

Team Stats

PHITOR

19Shots on goal30

2.22Expected goals1.89

49Shot attempts45

175v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play1/1

32Hits33

9Blocked shots14

2Penalty minutes4

24Giveaways23

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.22 xGTOR 1.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI19 on goal, 2 scored

TOR30 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	16:46	0:54
S. Couturier	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	16:18	0:55
R. Poehling	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	13:39	0:08
R. Abols	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	13:31	0:04
J. Pelletier	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	13:10	0:08
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	17:56	1:02
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-2	0	17:44	0:53
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	7	1	-3	0	17:02	0:59
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:04	0:55
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:45	0:54
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:07	0:57
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	11:25	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-4	0	26:17	1:04
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	25:59	0:57
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	21:12	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	20:41	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	2	20:20	0:01
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:50	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	30	23	7	.767	60:00	Loss
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Tavares	C	2	2	4	4	0	0	+3	0	15:27	1:14
W. Nylander	RW	2	2	4	4	1	0	+2	0	15:23	1:14
M. Knies	LW	0	2	2	1	6	1	0	0	17:15	1:14
B. McMann	C	1	1	2	2	4	0	+3	0	14:06	0:00
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:43	1:14
A. Matthews	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	16:37	1:14
D. Kampf	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	15:08	0:00
M. Domi	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:27	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:52	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	12:38	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	14:51	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	2	13:51	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:45	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	5	0	+2	0	21:13	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+2	0	21:08	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+2	0	19:50	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:40	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	19	17	2	.895	60:00	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoseph Woll PHI First game back in Toronto, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0
HometownJamie Drysdale PHI Plays in his hometown1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.8, TOR 3.5	PHI 2, TOR 7
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	PHI 27.7, TOR 26.8	PHI 19, TOR 30
Win chance	TOR 61%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.5	2	1.25	1	46%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.8	4	1.08	4	38%	2
PHI M. Michkov	2.4	2	0.69	1	22%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.4	4	0.94	4	33%	2
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	3	0.86	0	29%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.1	2	0.48	0	21%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.1	4	0.54	1	16%	1
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	0	0.51	0	23%	0
TOR B. McMann	1.9	2	0.53	2	25%	1
TOR M. Marner	1.8	1	1.20	1	30%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.8	1	0.72	2	28%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	1	0.48	0	18%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.5	1	0.67	0	11%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	0	0.40	0	9%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.4	3	0.39	0	19%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.4	1	0.47	0	9%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	0	0.47	0	16%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	0	0.40	0	15%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.2	0	0.41	1	17%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.2	2	0.53	1	14%	1
PHI R. Poehling	1.2	1	0.36	1	14%	1
PHI C. York	1.2	0	0.31	0	7%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	1	0.33	1	7%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	0	0.20	0	4%	0
PHI O. Lycksell	1.1	1	0.28	0	9%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.1	2	0.17	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	1	0.40	1	8%	0
PHI J. Pelletier	0.9	0	0.25	1	9%	0
PHI R. Abols	0.9	1	0.18	1	9%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.9	2	0.24	1	11%	0
TOR B. Carlo	0.9	2	0.20	0	6%	0
TOR D. Kampf	0.8	2	0.24	1	10%	1
PHI E. Zamula	0.6	0	0.25	0	5%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.6	1	0.09	0	5%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.27	0	4%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.6	2	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.