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Game Recap
PHI2
VGK5
VGK beat PHI 5-2, with the chances close: 3.31 expected goals to 2.83. M. Stone led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). I. Samsonov stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| VGK | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 0:21PHIT. Foerster0.19 xG
- 2nd 0:51VGKM. Stone0.32 xG
- 2nd 2:13VGKN. Hague0.03 xG
- 2nd 18:22VGKP. Dorofeyev0.08 xG
- 3rd 2:46VGKA. Holtz0.15 xG
- 3rd 4:56PHIT. KonecnyPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 19:24VGKT. PearsonEN0.60 xG
Team Stats
PHIVGK
25Shots on goal27
2.83Expected goals3.31
64Shot attempts58
225v5 shots on goal26
1/2Power play0/1
17Hits22
13Blocked shots16
2Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways18
1Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.83 xGVGK 3.31 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:00 | 1:12 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 17:26 | 1:12 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 1:02 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:06 | 1:14 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:44 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:44 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:36 | 0:17 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:32 | 1:13 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:18 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:04 | 1:04 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:37 | 1:10 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kolosov | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 57:53 | Loss |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:01 |
| M. Stone | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:15 | 0:58 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:03 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:40 | 1:01 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:08 | 1:00 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 1:02 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:00 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:57 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:59 |
| J. Rondbjerg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23:13 | 1:04 |
| A. Pietrangelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:16 | 0:59 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:56 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.7, VGK 3.6 | PHI 2, VGK 5 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 27.7, VGK 29.1 | PHI 25, VGK 27 |
| Win chance | VGK 64% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.3 | 3 | 1.28 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.6 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.4 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.2 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VGK V. Olofsson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 3 | 1.10 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.9 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.7 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VGK A. Pietrangelo | 1.7 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.60 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.6 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 1.6 | 0 | 0.74 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.5 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.1 | 3 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK J. Rondbjerg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.