Game Recap: TOR 3, PHI 2, January 7, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR3

FinalTue, Jan 7, 2025Every game that night

PHI2

TOR beat PHI 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.88 expected goals to 3.58. PHI outshot TOR 32 to 17. T. Konecny led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Michkov had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Woll stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	0	2	1	3
PHI	1	1	0	2

1st 8:19PHIT. Konecny0.07 xG
2nd 1:19TORJ. TavaresPP0.07 xG
2nd 7:14PHIT. Konecny0.16 xG
2nd 7:55TORA. Matthews0.21 xG
3rd 13:21TORM. Knies0.09 xG

Team Stats

TORPHI

17Shots on goal32

1.88Expected goals3.58

50Shot attempts66

165v5 shots on goal23

1/4Power play0/4

31Hits15

12Blocked shots17

13Penalty minutes15

17Giveaways13

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 1.88 xGPHI 3.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR17 on goal, 3 scored

PHI32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+2	2	22:59	4:06
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	1	1	2	+1	0	20:51	4:05
J. Tavares	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	16:45	3:35
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	2	18:09	2:53
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:54	4:38
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	15:37	1:28
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:56	1:27
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	13:20	0:00
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	12:37	0:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	10:28	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	7:23	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	6:52	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	20:38	2:32
P. Myers	D	0	1	1	0	5	2	+1	0	18:26	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	4	3	2	+1	0	24:35	2:05
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:21	0:07
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	16:43	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	12:38	0:49

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
D. Hildeby	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	2	0	2	6	3	2	+2	0	21:00	1:55
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	19:53	3:30
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	10:43	0:19
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	19:37	2:03
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	2	16:09	2:49
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:04	3:07
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:56	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	0	14:27	3:56
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	12:43	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	12:36	1:17
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	11:54	2:07
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	10:54	0:10
C. York	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	2	19:57	0:02
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	-1	0	23:15	0:13
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:17	2:28
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17:49	2:44
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	15:29	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	15:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	17	14	3	.824	58:07	Loss
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoseph Woll PHI First game against TOR since he left (his team until Apr 2026)30 saves on 32, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.3, PHI 3.0	TOR 3, PHI 2
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	TOR 26.4, PHI 30.4	TOR 17, PHI 32
Win chance	TOR 54%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.6	1	1.17	2	45%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	0	1.05	0	37%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.9	2	0.64	0	26%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	2	0.90	2	32%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.5	6	0.90	2	32%	2
TOR B. McMann	2.1	0	0.50	0	25%	0
TOR M. Marner	2.1	2	1.27	2	31%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.8	1	0.54	0	20%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.8	0	0.43	0	18%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.8	2	0.47	0	23%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.7	1	0.66	1	27%	1
PHI S. Laughton	1.7	1	0.46	0	16%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.7	8	0.62	0	21%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	0	0.42	1	14%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	0	0.71	1	11%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	2	0.44	0	9%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	0	0.49	0	16%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.6	4	0.49	0	16%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	2	0.27	0	4%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	3	0.54	0	14%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.4	1	0.45	1	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	4	0.42	0	7%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.3	0	0.23	1	5%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	0	0.22	0	4%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	0	0.33	1	8%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	0	0.28	0	5%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.2	2	0.35	0	13%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	0	0.29	0	11%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.9	0	0.22	0	9%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	0	0.34	0	5%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	0	0.31	0	6%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	2	0.19	0	10%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.12	0	3%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	0	0.30	0	4%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.14	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.