Game Recap: TOR 7, PIT 2, November 29, 2025

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Game Recap

TOR7

FinalSat, Nov 29, 2025Every game that night

PIT2

TOR beat PIT 7-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.02 expected goals to 3.55. PIT outshot TOR 35 to 23. S. Crosby led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Malkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Hildeby stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	2	3	2	7
PIT	1	0	1	2

1st 6:46TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.24 xG
1st 8:14PITB. KindelPP0.07 xG
1st 11:06TORE. Cowan0.07 xG
2nd 2:24TORB. McMann0.08 xG
2nd 4:53TORD. Joshua0.20 xG
2nd 13:58TORN. RoyPP0.35 xG
3rd 4:37PITS. Crosby0.16 xG
3rd 7:14TORA. Matthews0.04 xG
3rd 13:16TORN. Robertson0.22 xG

Team Stats

TORPIT

23Shots on goal35

3.02Expected goals3.55

44Shot attempts86

165v5 shots on goal28

1/3Power play1/3

19Hits16

26Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes10

19Giveaways11

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

TOR 3.02 xGPIT 3.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

TOR23 on goal, 7 scored

PIT35 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	20:17	5:27
A. Matthews	C	1	1	2	4	0	2	+1	0	19:47	5:07
N. Roy	C	1	1	2	1	2	1	+2	0	15:28	0:29
M. Domi	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	2	15:14	0:55
B. McMann	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	11:50	0:42
W. Nylander	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:17	4:55
E. Cowan	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	18:44	3:51
D. Joshua	C	1	0	1	2	7	2	+2	0	12:51	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	10:02	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	+1	2	19:34	4:48
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	2	10:47	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	10:40	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	2	2	0	0	2	+3	0	21:10	1:05
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	13:56	1:44
T. Stecher	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+3	0	23:52	0:09
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+2	2	21:36	0:13
P. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	15:52	0:00
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	15:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Hildeby	35	33	2	.943	59:45	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	-1	0	15:54	2:11
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	2	18:54	2:59
K. Hayes	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	-2	0	15:18	1:57
B. Kindel	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	15:08	2:18
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	15:25	0:00
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	-3	2	15:07	2:11
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:45	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	13:54	1:50
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:50	1:53
J. Koppanen	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:28	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:27	1:03
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	13:03	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:44	1:52
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	0	22:06	2:16
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	2	7	2	-3	2	20:24	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	20:19	0:06
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	15:20	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:17	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	10	6	4	.600	24:37	Loss
T. Jarry	13	10	3	.769	35:07

Lines at 5-on-5

TOR

Line 1M. Domi14:03M. Knies14:11A. Matthews13:42

Line 2J. Tavares14:31E. Cowan14:38W. Nylander14:07

Line 3D. Joshua11:02N. Roy13:22B. McMann10:13

Line 4S. Lorentz9:19N. Robertson9:54S. Laughton9:14

Pair 1T. Stecher21:12J. McCabe19:34

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson11:41M. Rielly17:27

Pair 3D. Mermis14:42P. Myers14:28

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby13:36B. Rust14:07K. Hayes13:21

Line 2E. Malkin12:40T. Novak12:04A. Mantha11:42

Line 3V. Koivunen12:08B. Kindel12:34D. Heinen12:54

Line 4B. Lizotte11:16C. Dewar10:34J. Koppanen11:20

Pair 1K. Letang18:07R. Shea17:15

Pair 2E. Karlsson16:24P. Wotherspoon17:23

Pair 3M. Dumba15:13R. Graves14:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNick Robertson PIT First game against TOR since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 G, 1 SOG
Old teamConnor Dewar PIT Faces TOR, his team until Mar 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	TOR 3.1, PIT 3.2	TOR 7, PIT 2
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	TOR 26.3, PIT 29.8	TOR 23, PIT 35
Win chance	PIT 52%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	3.6	4	1.02	2	41%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.9	5	0.93	0	35%	0
TOR W. Nylander	2.9	1	1.11	1	39%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	1	0.79	1	29%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	4	1.01	2	33%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	2	0.77	0	16%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.2	2	0.82	2	29%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	6	0.79	0	25%	0
TOR E. Cowan	2.1	1	0.54	1	18%	1
PIT K. Hayes	1.9	3	0.41	1	17%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.9	1	0.48	0	11%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.9	5	0.40	1	18%	1
TOR B. McMann	1.9	3	0.38	2	19%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	0	0.64	2	11%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	0	0.58	0	23%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.7	1	0.43	1	20%	1
PIT T. Novak	1.7	2	0.53	0	20%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.6	1	0.31	0	13%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	2	0.46	2	8%	1
TOR N. Roy	1.5	1	0.46	2	18%	1
TOR M. Domi	1.5	0	0.47	2	14%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.3	0	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.2	0	0.33	0	8%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.2	1	0.36	0	14%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	4	0.30	0	14%	0
TOR P. Myers	1.1	1	0.12	0	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	2	0.28	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.35	0	6%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	2	0.31	1	15%	1
PIT M. Dumba	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
PIT J. Koppanen	0.9	0	0.17	0	9%	0
TOR T. Stecher	0.9	0	0.12	1	3%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.8	2	0.17	0	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	1	0.25	0	7%	0
TOR D. Mermis	0.8	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.