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Game Recap
UTA3
FinalTue, Nov 3, 2026Every game that night
TOR2

UTA beat TOR 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.89 expected goals to 1.61. C. Keller led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Raddysh had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. S. Cossa stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
UTA1113
TOR0112
  1. 1st 19:47UTAD. GuentherPP0.06 xG
  2. 2nd 10:20TORJ. Roslovic0.06 xG
  3. 2nd 13:42UTAA. Peeke0.02 xG
  4. 3rd 9:05TORJ. Roslovic0.13 xG
  5. 3rd 13:12UTAN. SchmaltzPP0.83 xG

Team Stats

UTATOR
36Shots on goal29
3.89Expected goals1.61
72Shot attempts62
275v5 shots on goal23
2/3Power play0/2
22Hits23
18Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes6
27Giveaways14
0Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

UTA 3.89 xGTOR 1.61 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdUTA goal, 19:47TOR goal, 10:20UTA goal, 13:42TOR goal, 9:05UTA goal, 13:12

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

UTA36 on goal, 3 scored
TOR29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

UTA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. KellerRW033500+1018:473:58
D. GuentherRW101210-1016:554:00
N. SchmaltzC101302-1216:534:00
A. LeeLW011300+1014:460:19
L. CooleyC0003630018:394:00
V. TrocheckC000021-1018:360:19
L. CrouseLW000324-1017:070:00
B. HaytonC000101+1016:220:21
J. McBainC000121-1013:580:00
K. StenlundC0001110012:280:00
M. CarconeLW000120-108:310:19
L. O'BrienC000121027:150:00
M. SergachevD0221010025:524:00
A. PeekeD101200-1019:410:00
M. WeegarD0003120024:060:19
N. SchmidtD0003110017:550:00
N. DeSimoneD000200-1014:100:00
D. SimashevD0001200014:010:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Cossa29272.93159:58Win
K. Vejmelka000–0:00

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. MatthewsC022501+2020:012:41
J. RoslovicC202410+2218:192:42
W. NylanderRW000302-1021:242:18
E. CowanRW000220+2019:311:18
G. McKennaLW0002000015:532:42
N. PaulLW0000110214:571:19
T. BluegerC0000000014:320:00
C. SissonsC000121-1013:550:00
B. DuhaimeLW0000200012:100:00
D. JoshuaC000050-1011:470:00
Z. MacEwenRW0001510010:300:00
V. LettieriC000032008:041:18
M. RiellyD011101+2018:181:21
D. RaddyshD000601-1222:482:39
J. McCabeD000012-1022:080:02
C. TanevD0001010021:060:00
O. Ekman-LarssonD0003100017:241:40
T. StecherD000001+2014:240:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky36333.91758:30Loss
A. Stolarz000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

UTA

Line 1A. Lee14:25B. Hayton14:38C. Keller14:38
Line 2V. Trocheck15:11L. Crouse14:22L. Cooley14:08
Line 3N. Schmaltz12:51D. Guenther12:55J. McBain12:39
Line 4K. Stenlund9:13M. Carcone8:12L. O'Brien7:15
Pair 1M. Weegar19:59M. Sergachev18:07
Pair 2N. Schmidt16:15A. Peeke17:57
Pair 3N. DeSimone14:03D. Simashev13:57

TOR

Line 1E. Cowan15:58A. Matthews15:50J. Roslovic14:07
Line 2W. Nylander17:17N. Paul13:24D. Joshua11:47
Line 3T. Blueger11:29B. Duhaime11:14Z. MacEwen10:30
Line 4C. Sissons10:28G. McKenna11:41V. Lettieri6:46
Pair 1D. Raddysh18:37J. McCabe18:29
Pair 2C. Tanev17:31M. Rielly16:57
Pair 3O. Ekman-Larsson15:01T. Stecher13:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

13 of 20 overs hit (65%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
UTA D. Guenther3.5+128-1552Under
TOR A. Matthews2.5-152+1295Over
UTA C. Keller2.5+101-1205Over
TOR D. Raddysh2.5+130-1556Over
UTA L. Cooley2.5+150-1903Over
UTA M. Sergachev2.5+145-1751Under
UTA N. Schmaltz2.5+132-1603Over
TOR W. Nylander2.5+108-1303Over
UTA A. Lee1.5-160+1363Over
UTA A. Peeke1.5+180–2Over
UTA B. Hayton1.5-120+1001Under
TOR E. Cowan1.5-120+1052Over
TOR G. McKenna1.5-105-1252Over
TOR J. Roslovic1.5-180+1464Over
UTA L. Crouse1.5+110-1343Over
UTA M. Carcone1.5-135+1251Under
TOR M. Rielly1.5+110–1Under
UTA M. Weegar1.5-148+1193Over
TOR N. Paul1.5+115-1300Under
UTA V. Trocheck1.5-105+1000Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownJack McBain UTA Plays in his hometown1 SOG
  • HometownSebastian Cossa UTA Plays near home (born in Hamilton)27 saves on 29, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreUTA 3.7, TOR 3.3UTA 3, TOR 2
Total goals7.05
Shots on goalUTA 30.5, TOR 25.9UTA 36, TOR 29
Win chanceUTA 55%UTA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
TOR A. Matthews3.251.10242%0
UTA D. Guenther3.120.93135%1
UTA C. Keller2.751.06329%0
TOR D. Raddysh2.660.75014%0
TOR W. Nylander2.631.14038%0
UTA N. Schmaltz2.430.85127%1
UTA A. Lee2.130.50122%0
UTA L. Cooley2.130.90031%0
UTA M. Sergachev2.110.80214%0
TOR J. Roslovic2.140.66225%2
UTA M. Weegar2.030.48011%0
UTA M. Carcone2.010.45020%0
UTA B. Hayton1.810.46017%0
UTA V. Trocheck1.800.67021%0
TOR E. Cowan1.620.57019%0
TOR G. McKenna1.620.54019%0
UTA L. Crouse1.530.43019%0
TOR N. Paul1.500.44021%0
TOR M. Rielly1.410.4818%0
TOR V. Lettieri1.400.25013%0
TOR T. Blueger1.100.35012%0
UTA J. McBain1.110.32013%0
UTA N. Schmidt1.130.2907%0
TOR C. Sissons1.110.30012%0
UTA A. Peeke1.120.2214%1
TOR T. Stecher1.100.2305%0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson1.030.3105%0
UTA D. Simashev1.010.1706%0
TOR J. McCabe1.000.3004%0
TOR Z. MacEwen1.010.1708%0
UTA K. Stenlund1.010.27010%0
TOR D. Joshua0.900.34016%0
UTA L. O'Brien0.910.1708%0
TOR B. Duhaime0.900.21010%0
UTA N. DeSimone0.920.2005%0
TOR C. Tanev0.510.1902%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.