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Game Recap
VGK5
PHI4
VGK beat PHI 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.92 expected goals to 4.89. I. Barbashev led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Sanheim had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. I. Samsonov stopped 32 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| PHI | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 8:51PHIM. Frost0.06 xG
- 1st 12:07PHIS. Couturier0.06 xG
- 2nd 0:28PHIE. Andrae0.15 xG
- 2nd 7:42VGKJ. Eichel0.07 xG
- 2nd 11:32VGKI. Barbashev0.09 xG
- 2nd 13:18PHIM. Michkov0.21 xG
- 2nd 18:10VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 11:55VGKT. Pearson0.11 xG
Team Stats
VGKPHI
30Shots on goal36
1.92Expected goals4.89
52Shot attempts70
285v5 shots on goal28
1/1Power play0/3
28Hits14
14Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways13
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
VGK 1.92 xGPHI 4.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eichel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:14 | 0:05 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:02 | 0:00 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:00 | 0:05 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:59 | 0:05 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Howden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:16 | 0:05 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Burke | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Morelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 27:39 | 0:05 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:00 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 27:42 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| R. Hagg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Samsonov | 36 | 32 | 4 | .889 | 64:56 | Win |
| A. Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:08 | 2:53 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:52 | 4:47 |
| S. Couturier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:05 | 4:38 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:31 | 4:52 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:06 | 1:12 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:51 | 1:20 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:16 | 1:11 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:56 | 1:03 |
| E. Andrae | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 21:29 | 3:12 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:02 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 27:08 | 2:48 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:02 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| H. Grans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 64:55 | OT loss |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VGK 3.3, PHI 2.7 | VGK 5, PHI 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | VGK 28.0, PHI 29.9 | VGK 30, PHI 36 |
| Win chance | VGK 58% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK J. Eichel | 3.4 | 2 | 1.19 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.1 | 3 | 0.99 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.0 | 4 | 0.58 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.5 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.4 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 2.0 | 7 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 2.0 | 5 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 1.8 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.7 | 4 | 0.68 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.6 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.6 | 3 | 0.45 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| PHI C. York | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.4 | 3 | 0.68 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK C. Burke | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hague | 1.0 | 4 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| VGK M. Morelli | 0.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VGK R. Hagg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK C. Schwindt | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.