Game Recap: WSH 3, PIT 5, November 6, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH3

FinalThu, Nov 6, 2025Every game that night

PIT5

PIT beat WSH 5-3, with the chances close: 3.68 expected goals to 2.98. B. Rust led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Crosby had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Silovs stopped 27 of 30.

Team Stats

WSHPIT

30Shots on goal31

2.98Expected goals3.68

59Shot attempts62

245v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play3/5

27Hits10

15Blocked shots16

10Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways18

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.98 xGPIT 3.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH30 on goal, 3 scored

PIT27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Strome	C	1	2	3	5	1	0	+2	2	23:30	4:03
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	2	2	2	6	0	+2	0	21:20	4:24
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	21:47	3:27
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	18:05	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:50	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:13	0:42
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	13:24	1:18
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:51	0:00
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	9:21	0:39
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:18	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:17	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:17	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	23:47	4:06
R. Sandin	D	1	0	1	3	2	4	+1	0	18:25	0:39
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	5	2	2	0	0	27:52	4:09
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	21:28	0:11
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:37	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	4	12:29	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	30	26	4	.867	58:01	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	1	2	3	5	1	0	-1	0	21:36	6:05
S. Crosby	C	2	0	2	6	0	0	-2	0	22:03	6:02
B. Kindel	C	0	2	2	0	0	2	-1	2	20:48	6:03
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:22	6:06
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	15:21	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	13:59	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:54	0:49
A. Mantha	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	12:02	0:47
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:31	0:00
J. Koppanen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:27	0:00
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:49	0:49
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:49	0:38
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	0	24:34	6:04
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	21:11	0:51
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:17	0:11
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	16:51	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	4	3	0	2	16:50	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	30	27	3	.900	59:37	Win
S. Murashov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1D. Strome17:09A. Beauvillier17:03A. Ovechkin14:57

Line 2T. Wilson12:46A. Protas12:40C. McMichael11:59

Line 3S. Milano8:41R. Leonard10:51H. Lapierre9:14

Line 4N. Dowd6:06J. Sourdif7:17B. Duhaime4:36

Pair 1J. Chychrun19:48M. Roy17:44

Pair 2J. Carlson14:00M. Fehérváry13:24

Pair 3R. Sandin14:33T. Riemsdyk10:57

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:21B. Kindel14:13B. Rust13:19

Line 2C. Dewar11:09B. Lizotte11:08J. Koppanen9:26

Line 3A. Mantha10:35T. Novak11:46E. Malkin10:14

Line 4P. Tomasino9:00V. Koivunen9:11D. Heinen9:30

Pair 1K. Letang16:30R. Shea14:55

Pair 2C. Clifton15:45R. Graves14:54

Pair 3E. Karlsson14:25P. Wotherspoon13:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Beauvillier WSH Faces PIT, his team until Mar 20254 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.0, PIT 3.0	WSH 3, PIT 5
Total goals	6.0	8
Shots on goal	WSH 26.9, PIT 27.7	WSH 30, PIT 31
Win chance	PIT 51%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.2	2	0.89	2	37%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.7	5	0.86	3	32%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.7	6	1.09	2	34%	2
WSH J. Chychrun	2.6	5	0.59	0	17%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	3	0.75	1	17%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	1	0.84	1	26%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.1	0	0.43	2	22%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.1	4	0.37	0	16%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	1	0.61	1	12%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	3	0.70	1	27%	1
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	1	0.51	0	21%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	1	0.67	0	21%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	2	0.38	1	10%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	5	0.79	3	24%	1
WSH R. Leonard	1.7	2	0.35	0	14%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	1	0.56	1	22%	1
PIT P. Tomasino	1.5	1	0.36	0	13%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.4	1	0.41	1	17%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	4	0.27	1	12%	1
PIT V. Koivunen	1.3	1	0.38	0	10%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	1	0.28	0	5%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.2	1	0.39	0	16%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	0	0.32	0	15%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	2	0.32	1	15%	0
WSH S. Milano	1.1	1	0.36	0	15%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	0	0.29	0	6%	0
PIT C. Clifton	1.0	1	0.24	0	5%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	0	0.21	0	4%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.0	0	0.20	0	12%	0
PIT J. Koppanen	1.0	1	0.18	0	11%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	1.0	0	0.34	0	10%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	3	0.33	1	6%	1
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	1	0.23	0	7%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.8	1	0.20	0	3%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.7	0	0.14	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.