PHI beat PIT 6-1, with the chances close: 3.29 expected goals to 3.06. PHI outshot PIT 38 to 24. B. Brink led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Michkov had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. S. Ersson stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| PHI | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 3:56PHIR. Ristolainen0.05 xG
- 1st 12:19PHIN. Cates0.07 xG
- 2nd 6:09PITP. Tomasino0.18 xG
- 2nd 11:55PHIT. Foerster0.10 xG
- 2nd 18:55PHIN. Cates0.22 xG
- 2nd 19:05PHIB. Brink0.39 xG
- 3rd 6:06PHIO. Tippett0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.06 xGPHI 3.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 1:59 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 1:51 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:26 | 2:10 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:52 | 2:02 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:09 | 1:21 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:39 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 2:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:46 | 1:59 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:13 | 1:50 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:08 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:48 | 2:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 38 | 32 | 6 | .842 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Brink | RW | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 16:10 | 2:37 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:01 | 2:48 |
| N. Cates | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:14 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:07 | 2:52 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:32 | 2:41 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:29 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:43 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:46 | 2:40 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:45 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:38 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:44 | 0:32 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 3:06 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:53 | 2:24 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:58 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:33 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Fedotov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 2.8, PHI 2.8 | PIT 1, PHI 6 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 26.3, PHI 27.8 | PIT 24, PHI 38 |
| Win chance | PIT 51% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.9 | 2 | 1.13 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.7 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.5 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 4 | 1.05 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.1 | 7 | 0.70 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 2.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 2.0 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 2.0 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 3 | 26% | 1 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.7 | 3 | 0.53 | 3 | 19% | 2 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.6 | 4 | 0.51 | 4 | 17% | 1 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| PHI A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.